Nigeria

Nigeria is mid-transformation: bold reforms on subsidies, the exchange rate and taxes have begun to lower inflation and rebuild reserves, while poverty, electricity and security remain heavy challenges, and elections are around the corner. Analysis7 sourcesSources4679101217

After the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the exchange rate (2023), inflation fell from 33.2% in 2024 to 15.4% in August 2026, and the Central Bank cut the interest rate to 23% in September.

The World Bank estimated growth at about 4% in 2025 and expects 4.1% in 2026, while more than half of the population lives below the line of USD 3 a day. 6

The Dangote refinery in Lagos reached its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day in 2026, according to reports, changing the fuel equation in West Africa. 10

237 million people, a young society, and a growing digital and creative economy — Nollywood, music and fintech.

A huge market, a relatively diversified economy and a dynamic private sector, against widespread poverty, unstable electricity, security challenges in a number of states, and currency volatility. The size justifies study, and the complexity demands due diligence. Analysis7 sourcesSources4679101217

An economy based mainly on services and agriculture, led by oil in exports and revenues, growing at about 4% a year and gradually recovering from the inflation shock. 6

GDP per capita in dollars fell sharply in 2023–2024 with the devaluation of the naira, then rose in 2025. We therefore state the year and source of each figure. 6

Growth stabilised at 4% and inflation fell thanks to tight monetary policy and improvements in the exchange rate and agricultural output; the current account recorded a surplus of 4.8% of GDP, and gross reserves rose to USD 45.5 billion. By contrast, about 10 million people fell into poverty according to the World Bank.

Public debt to GDP — World Bank (April 2026); the ratio was affected by the GDP rebasing and the exchange rate. 3 sourcesSources689

The gap between the oil assumption and actual production, and the weight of debt service, determine the government’s capacity to spend and pay; partnerships with the private sector and direct financing become more important. Analysis3 sourcesSources689

Each sector is classified according to its current nature — not according to its declared ambition. 6 sourcesSources5910111213

No sector is described in full as an “investment opportunity”. The areas worth studying are identified later in Part Three. 6 sourcesSources5910111213

An economy larger and more diversified than the image of an “oil country” suggests: services and agriculture make up about four-fifths of GDP, and oil remains the key to foreign currency. Analysis6 sourcesSources5910111213

An oil country for sixty years that imported most of its refined fuel. A single refinery in Lagos has begun to change this equation. Analysis4 sourcesSources891017

Production reached 1.68 million barrels per day of oil and condensates in August 2026 (1.50 million of crude alone), complying with the OPEC quota for the fourth consecutive month, but below the budget assumption of 1.84 million. The regulatory authority attributes the gap to oil theft, infrastructure constraints and underinvestment in the upstream. 89

In the Lekki Free Zone, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day — the world’s largest single-train refinery. Reports said it reached its nameplate capacity in February 2026 and raised processing to about 700,000 barrels ahead of an initial public offering, and it produces fuels, liquefied gas and polypropylene. 10

Nigeria has large gas reserves used for power generation, industry and export as liquefied gas, and the shortage of gas supply to power plants remains one of the causes of weak electricity. 4 sourcesSources891017

August 2026: food 19.57%, core 13.29%, urban 15.88%, and rural 14.23%.

Monetary policy has entered an easing phase after two years of tightening; naira stability and profit repatriation are among the things any foreign investor asks about most. Analysis3 sourcesSources6713

Improved agricultural output helped lower inflation in 2025 according to the World Bank, and food inflation fell to 19.6% in August 2026 as prices of goods such as palm oil, onions, peppers and cassava flour declined. Food security remains a sensitive issue because of high transport and input costs.

Agriculture accounts for about 25.8% of GDP after rebasing, and crop production alone 17.6% — the largest single activity in the economy. A large number of people work in agriculture, especially in the north and the Middle Belt.

The gap between installed capacity and available electricity is one of the Nigerian economy’s biggest constraints. Analysis11

Available output does not exceed about a third of installed capacity because of deferred maintenance and interruptions of gas supply to thermal plants, while hydropower plants perform better. Electricity reaches 62.5% of the population (2024), and companies and households rely on generators at high cost. 11

Distributed solar, embedded plants for factories and complexes, and gas-to-power solutions are natural growth areas given the weak grid. Analysis11

The Lekki Deep Sea Port in Lagos, which began operating in 2023, added capacity to receive large ships alongside the Apapa and Tin Can ports, and serves the Nigerian market and landlocked countries in the Sahel. Next to it are the Dangote refinery and the Lekki Free Zone.

Lagos has entered the age of urban trains with its Blue and Red Line rapid transit lines, major highway projects extend along the coast and inland, and the coastal corridor links Lagos with Cotonou, Lomé, Accra and Abidjan. 10

Congestion at ports and on roads and the cost of domestic transport are decisive factors in the viability of any trade with the Kingdom; proximity to the Lekki port is an advantage for manufacturing and distribution projects. Analysis10

The largest telecoms market in Africa by subscribers, and an active start-up ecosystem in payments, lending and e-commerce, concentrated in Lagos. 12

This table is an institutional summary and is no substitute for legal and tax advice. Legal and regulatory requirements must be verified at the time of decision, with the Federal Inland Revenue Service, the relevant authorities and a licensed local adviser. 713

A huge English-speaking market, a strong private sector, and reforms improving the exchange rate and taxes; on the other hand, unstable electricity, currency volatility, security challenges in some states, and multiple levels of regulation. Analysis713

An official point of contact (the investment promotion commission or the relevant ministry), a local partner whose record and beneficial owner are verified, a carefully studied geographic choice among the states, and an independent security assessment — before any commitment. Proposed

Fast-changing information — election results and government composition, the exchange rate and interest rate, security advisories, visa requirements, and flight schedules — should be reviewed in the week of the visit itself and before any signing. Proposed